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Ukraine… Will Russia Invade ?

Recusant

Professional
Unfortunately, this is Daja Vue all over again:

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That spent the last several weeks basically saying we were overreacting to Putin's actions. Flippin' Russian state TV played his segments as propaganda in their own country. He needs to shut his damn mouth. Dude is nothing but a mouthpiece for some of the worst of the worst pushing B.S. theories under the guise of "just asking questions." If he was worried about a possible third world war and "making things worse" he'd have shut the **** up a long time ago. Sure, Putin's power comes from John Kerry and climate concerns and renewable energy. Asshole. **** him.
Wasn't it Biden who sold himself as being able to take on Putin plus the last four years of Trump being called a puppet of Putin to the point that he got impeached over a phone call over which Zelensky even stated that Trump did nothing wrong. I doubt Tucker influenced Putin and more like Biden's fantastic withdrawal last year and his pushing of Ukraine to join NATO and then backtracks hard. The more important question is, when will that southern border get taken care of, if many in the political establishment believe in protecting Ukraine's border. And it was Biden who overturned on the sanctions to stop that pipeline and the Europeans insisting on shutting down their nuclear power plants in favor of oil from, funny enough Putin of all people. And then begged Biden not to remove Russia from SWIFT.

To use a line from one of my favorite movies, Apocalypse Now, which is "The war was being run by a bunch of four star clowns who were gonna end up giving the whole circus away" as far as this whole sage goes.
 
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benstt

Professional
Founding Member
Wasn't it Biden who sold himself as being able to take on Putin plus the last four years of Trump being called a puppet of Putin to the point that he got impeached over a phone call over which Zelensky even stated that Trump did nothing wrong. I doubt Tucker influenced Putin and more like Biden's fantastic withdrawal last year and his pushing of Ukraine to join NATO and then backtracks hard. The more important question is, when will that southern border get taken care of, if many in the political establishment believe in protecting Ukraine.
I think you're confusing issues. 1) Of course Zelensky would back the current U.S. president (trump). He needed our protection. We have transcripts from the trump call that tell us all we need to know. 2) Regardless of what Biden did or said, if there is an unfortunately widely watched jackass on United States television preaching the lie that what Putin is doing is not that bad, and Russian state TV decides to run with said jackass's segments, it will look to the citizens of Russia like the U.S. supports what their tyrant president does. 3) trump started and committed to the withdrawl from Afghanistan; Biden just followed through. Sort of like a contract and keeping our country's word, something trump knew nothing about.

All that is an aside, though, and please don't play the intellectually dishonest "whatabout" card. It's for inferior minds who can't deal with the subject at hand so they look for a distraction. We're talking about Tucker Carlson and no one else. Tucker's segments have been supportive of a hostile regime and he should have to pay for that. He goes beyond attacking Biden for whatever mistakes Biden has made to actually downplaying Putin and Russia's blatant aggression and the danger it presents. I have a hard time accepting that anyone would still watch that hack and take him seriously. You can sit there and point fingers at Biden, and you're welcome to since he's been far from perfect, but are you honestly going to excuse Tucker's support for a hostile regime? He needs to be called out for the trash he is and he needs to go. Hannity is an idiot and a hack, Rachel Maddow is an unabashed partisan, and Don Lemon is a sanctimonious schmuck, but Tucker is on a different level. He's dangerous to us as a nation for all the lies and disinformation he peddles with no remorse. The fact that he's not as stupid as Hannity and tries to cover his B.S. by claiming he's "just asking questions" makes him far more danerous. People who watch his hour of B.S. should wise up and he should go away. No excuses for people like him. I'm going to stop before I sat something harsh.
 
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I think you're confusing issues. 1) Of course Zelensky would back the current U.S. president (trump). He needed our protection. We have transcripts from the trump call that tell us all we need to know. 2) Regardless of what Biden did or said, if there is an unfortunately widely watched jackass on United States television preaching the lie that what Putin is doing is not that bad, and Russian state TV decides to run with said jackass's segments, it will look to the citizens of Russian like the U.S. supports what their tyrant president does. 3) trump started and committed to the withdrawl from Afghanistan; Biden just followed through. Sort of like a contract and keeping our country's word, something trump knew nothing about.

All that is an aside, though, and please don't play the intellectually dishonest "whatabout" card. It's for inferior minds who can't deal with the subject at hand so they look for a distraction. We're talking about Tucker Carlson and no one else. Tucker's segments have been supportive of a hostile regime and he should have to pay for that. He goes beyond attacking Biden for whatever mistakes Biden has made to actually saying downplaying Putin and Russia's blatant aggression and the danger it presents. I have a hard time accepting that anyone would still watch that hack and take him seriously. You can sit there and point fingers at Biden, and you're welcome to since he's been far from perfect, but are you honestly going to excuse Tucker's support for a hostile regime? He needs to be called out for the trash he is and he needs to go. Hannity is an idiot and a hack, Rachel Maddow is an unabashed partisan, and Don Lemon is a sanctimonious schmuck, but Tucker is on a different level. He's f'ing dangerous to us as a nation for all the lies and disinformation he peddles with no remorse. The fact that he's not as stupid as Hannity and tries to cover his B.S. by claiming he's "just asking questions" makes him far more danerous. People who watch his hour of B.S. should wise up and he should go away. No excuses for people like him. I'm going to stop before I sat something harsh.
If Tucker is truly some foreign Russian agent as CNN and MSNBC and all the other pundits and late night talk show hosts have claimed, that supported the wars in the past 2 decades and more then he should register as one and Fox News should get rid of him, if it is proven. And Tucker has claimed that apparently the intelligence agencies have looked into him as well and even has been singled out by the Pentagon on Twitter a couple of months ago.

However questioning whatever comes out of Washington or the Pentagon, just because Russian TV played it, isn't grounds to condemn someone for being a potential traitor. There were liberals who questioned the wars pushed by Bush and those folks were promoted by outlets like Al Jazeera, are we going to condemn them as traitors as well just because America's enemies used their words to promote lies to their own public. Unless Tucker has control over or made a deal with Russian television, its madness in my view and goes against the 1st amendment. You disagreement with Tucker is fine but accusing him of supporting Russia just because he questioned the lunacy coming out of the Biden Administration, who are trying to use that same old propaganda playbook from the Bush era, ain't right. I do agree that cable news in general is a giant disappointment and polls do show overall trust has fallen in all of them.

As far as Tucker's methods, I remember him being the only mainstream pundit that went against the narrative pushed by the media over how peaceful BLM is, talking about CRT and even alerting Trump who went on to ban it before the events of the 2020 election happened and stood up for Kyle Rittenhouse much earlier than the trial.

To address the Russian question, from what I recall, he has brought up how there is a certain "world police" element in Washington that doesn't address America's domestic problems in a more aggressive and proper manner. Russia also had a spy in some 2A gun rights group as well and the liberals used it as a way to bash the 2A movement.

Also I would like to add that Tucker has concentrated on the threat posed by China, something that CNN and MSNBC have ignored and IIRC Thomas Friedman wanted America to be more like China, if Tucker is bad going by your standards, then Thomas Friedman and many liberals are much worse and a greater threat.
 
So not understanding this as much as I guess I should I do have a question, why did Ukraine NOT become a member of NATO long before this started to become an issue?
 

Talyn

Ronin
Founding Member



 
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So not understanding this as much as I guess I should I do have a question, why did Ukraine NOT become a member of NATO long before this started to become an issue?
Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviets tried to put nukes with a very very close distance of hitting American cities. This is probably a close historical equivalent for Russia.

It's like if Mexico or Canada entered in a direct military alliance with Russia or China. And something that America cannot allow to happen at all costs.

Ukraine also became a nation after the USSR fell. It had nuclear weapons in being able to defend itself but Washington convinced them to abandon nukes in exchange for aid but the idea of trying to get them into NATO would provoke an aggressive response. Russia's only port for its warm water navy is over there. Plus Ukraine has a high level of corruption as well given our current President and his son's dealings over there.

 
President Xi Pushes Putin To "Negotiate" With Ukraine After Incursion

Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.

Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said.

The previously unreported talks between American and Chinese officials show how the Biden administration tried to use intelligence findings and diplomacy to persuade a superpower it views as a growing adversary to stop the invasion of Ukraine, and how that nation, led by President Xi Jinping, persistently sided with Russia even as the evidence of Moscow’s plans for a military offensive grew over the winter.

Apparently Biden decided to share intelligence with Chinese Communist Party, who then went on to give it to Putin. Looks like the president and his administration took the wrong lesson from sharing intelligence with the Taliban, which was probably not sharing it enough and not earlier.

Also a link to an interview that 45 did over the whole sage yesterday.

 
When Biden stopped oil & gas production from levels when he took office, America reverted back to depending on energy from other nations as opposed to being an energy exporter. Of course, we all knew that and are experiencing it each and every day at the pumps. And now Biden has stepped up to the plate with these sanctions to make it look like he's on top of it all. These sanctions will increase the price of oil and being 40% of Russia's economy is oil exportation, Putin & Co. stand to gain economically in a big way. As long as Putin is controlling the energy to Europe & the US, he has the power to turn the lights off... so to speak. Another brilliant move by the deep-thinker we have in office.

The only way to truly get a handle on this debacle is to reopen the pipeline, get back to the oil & gas production levels prior to Biden taking office, and reestablish the country as an energy exported once again. This would have a long-term impact of Russia's economy and would certainly improve our economy! In view of Russia's Ukraine land grab and killing of their citizens I'm sure most European countries would rather deal with America than Russia.
 
When Biden stopped oil & gas production from levels when he took office, America reverted back to depending on energy from other nations as opposed to being an energy exporter. Of course, we all knew that and are experiencing it each and every day at the pumps. And now Biden has stepped up to the plate with these sanctions to make it look like he's on top of it all. These sanctions will increase the price of oil and being 40% of Russia's economy is oil exportation, Putin & Co. stand to gain economically in a big way. As long as Putin is controlling the energy to Europe & the US, he has the power to turn the lights off... so to speak. Another brilliant move by the deep-thinker we have in office.

The only way to truly get a handle on this debacle is to reopen the pipeline, get back to the oil & gas production levels prior to Biden taking office, and reestablish the country as an energy exported once again. This would have a long-term impact of Russia's economy and would certainly improve our economy! In view of Russia's Ukraine land grab and killing of their citizens I'm sure most European countries would rather deal with America than Russia.

Apparently the Europeans pressured Biden not to remove Russia from SWIFT so I question the priorities of their leaders at this moment. There is the issue of "Green" parties in their governments that refuse to allow their nations to pursue nuclear energy as an alternative.

And he recently admitted that those sanctions would not do much as well while the Democrats still refuse to change on their energy stance.
 
Apparently the Europeans pressured Biden not to remove Russia from SWIFT so I question the priorities of their leaders at this moment. There is the issue of "Green" parties in their governments that refuse to allow their nations to pursue nuclear energy as an alternative.

And he recently admitted that those sanctions would not do much as well while the Democrats still refuse to change on their energy stance.
And ironically nuclear energy is about as green as it gets. Political stupidity seems to be the new norm. :rolleyes:
 

HansGruber

Hellcat
What follows is not by yours truly, but I did edit it for language not meeting forum rules. If something slipped by, that’s on me.

This is worth the read. Put aside your preconceived notions first, and get info from a native Ukrainian.

………..



On Ukraine

I am not a political scientist, military expert, nor do I have any formal education in Eastern European studies. I am, however, of Ukrainian birth, fluent in Russian, and have been paying attention to Russia and Ukraine my entire life. So this is – as I understand it – what has happened, is happening today, and is going to happen. Take it all with a giant grain of salt, it’s just a semi-educated opinion of Some Guy.

——
What has happened?

Some history first. Ukraine has existed in various conquered and unconquered forms for nearly a thousand years. Ukrainians have their own language, their own national identity. It’s close to Russia, but it’s not the same.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a fully independent nation. It has gone through a number of popular uprisings since, all aimed at removing Kremlin-supported autocrats and increasing democracy.

The last presidential election saw a Jewish comedian elected as president. He’s been pretty good – standing up to Trump, being a serious and effective leader today.

Next door, Russia is a much larger country, with 3.5x the population and 30x the land area. Russia also kept all of their nukes, while Ukraine gave up their Soviet nukes in exchange for vague assurances of defense from the West. Russia is ostensibly a democracy, but it hasn’t had a non-rigged election since Putin came to power 20 years ago (or possibly ever).

Russia is currently ruled by a single party, all loyal to Putin – a former KGB agent. Freedom of speech and dissent have been gradually boiled away. Where 20 years ago you could go protest, today protesters are arrested within seconds of unfurling their placards. Most people are zombified by a constant stream of propaganda – imagine the political discourse if Fox News commanded a 90% eyeball share in the US.

In 2014, in response to the latest pro-democracy uprising in Ukraine, which saw it’s puppet leader Yanukovych deposed, Russia staged an “uprising” in Crimea – a Ukrainian peninsula on the Black Sea that was historically Russian until the 1950s. This “people’s uprising” was paid for by Russia and supported by Russian troops who removed their insignia and crossed the border to drive this insurgency (troops removing insignia is a violation of the Geneva Conventions, btw).

At nearly the same time Russia did the same thing in a couple of east Ukrainian provinces – the Donbas region. Ukraine did not cede this as easily as Crimea, and there has been a protracted war between the Ukrainian Army and the “separatists” (aka Russian mercenaries).

They tried the same “poop”(edit by HG) in Kharkiv – the city I was born in – the second largest city in Ukraine, predominantly Russian-speaking, 50km from the Russian border. It did not succeed, largely because of its larger population of educated people who resisted the installation of a puppet “separatist” leader.

——
What’s going on?

Today, after 8 years of skirmishes, Russia has launched a full-on invasion of Ukraine. They claim it’s because of NATO expansion, they claim it’s to “de-Nazify” the country (yes, the same country that overwhelmingly elected a Jew as president a few years ago), they claim it’s “peacekeeping” to free the "oppressed Russophone people".

These are all lies.

Russia may genuinely worry about NATO expansion, but the right place to solve this is at the negotiating table. The rest is 100% bull(poop-HG). A real reason I do find compelling (but that’s impossible to prove as it’s a “state-of-mind” thing) is that Putin’s power is threatened by a vibrant, functioning democracy next door. He is worried that Russians will look at how their neighbors are doing and will want the same for themselves…instead of the kleptocracy they live under. So this is personal to Putin, and he’s not necessarily guided by sober strategy.

——
What’s going to happen?

I have no crystal ball. I have optimistic outcomes and pessimistic ones. Reality will likely be somewhere in between, but who the hell knows?

Optimistic:
Ukrainians put up a fight. Even if/when the military is defeated, there’ll be a gun behind every bush and a bomb under every Russian tank. This is existential to them – they are fighting for their homeland, their freedom, their democracy. They hold no malice for all Russians, however they’ll be shooting at Putin’s army, not all Russians. Meanwhile Russian troops are not going to be as eager to fight their Ukrainian cousins, especially if it comes to civilian resistance.

Economic sanctions take a toll on Putin’s “nobles”. He controls them, but if his military power is undermined, they may be inclined to depose him. Combined with popular uprisings against the war and against Putin, this leads to his downfall and a revolution in Russia.

Pessimistic:
Ukrainians don’t put up a strong fight, the Russians overthrow the government and install a puppet regime. The West scratches itself and does nothing meaningful. Russian sanctions come and go, as EU members who have tight economic links lose the political will to inflict pain on themselves in order to save Ukraine.

Ukraine becomes an occupied country. Unchastened, 5 years from now, Putin invades Poland or Finland. NATO intervenes. Fin.

Either way:
Ukraine will be devastated by war. It will be set back years, if not decades in economic development. Thousands upon thousands will die in the coming months. It’s the worst.

——
How can I help?

Pay attention, for now. Support sanctions. Support a stronger NATO. Tell people who are willing to turn a blind eye to Russian imperialism because “US imperialism” that they’re tankie stooges. There will be donation drives in the days ahead – contribute what you can.

—Gene Feingold
 
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Apparently a surprising old enemy has jumped in with their opinion.


I hesitate to say anything in this thread because of my personal lack of knowledge. It is a huge mess, though, and I do not think we have leadership in our country who we can trust to be able to deal with the situation.

The current and previous crop of American leadership overall for the past 3 decades has been a long term disaster full of disappointments. I will post this meme below just for a short laugh but seriously, people like Putin and Xi "appear" to be strong because of folks like the current occupant in the White House who put their own interests before interests of the nation as a whole.

Apparently I have read that the current administration's staff are fans of the TV show known as "The West Wing" and take inspiration from living out that show, take that as you will.

4Sgqt2JYzXyD.jpeg


What follows is not by yours truly, but I did edit it for language not meeting forum rules. If something slipped by, that’s on me.

This is worth the read. Put aside your preconceived notions first, and get info from a native Ukrainian.

………..



On Ukraine

I am not a political scientist, military expert, nor do I have any formal education in Eastern European studies. I am, however, of Ukrainian birth, fluent in Russian, and have been paying attention to Russia and Ukraine my entire life. So this is – as I understand it – what has happened, is happening today, and is going to happen. Take it all with a giant grain of salt, it’s just a semi-educated opinion of Some Guy.

——
What has happened?

Some history first. Ukraine has existed in various conquered and unconquered forms for nearly a thousand years. Ukrainians have their own language, their own national identity. It’s close to Russia, but it’s not the same.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became a fully independent nation. It has gone through a number of popular uprisings since, all aimed at removing Kremlin-supported autocrats and increasing democracy.

The last presidential election saw a Jewish comedian elected as president. He’s been pretty good – standing up to Trump, being a serious and effective leader today.

Next door, Russia is a much larger country, with 3.5x the population and 30x the land area. Russia also kept all of their nukes, while Ukraine gave up their Soviet nukes in exchange for vague assurances of defense from the West. Russia is ostensibly a democracy, but it hasn’t had a non-rigged election since Putin came to power 20 years ago (or possibly ever).

Russia is currently ruled by a single party, all loyal to Putin – a former KGB agent. Freedom of speech and dissent have been gradually boiled away. Where 20 years ago you could go protest, today protesters are arrested within seconds of unfurling their placards. Most people are zombified by a constant stream of propaganda – imagine the political discourse if Fox News commanded a 90% eyeball share in the US.

In 2014, in response to the latest pro-democracy uprising in Ukraine, which saw it’s puppet leader Yanukovych deposed, Russia staged an “uprising” in Crimea – a Ukrainian peninsula on the Black Sea that was historically Russian until the 1950s. This “people’s uprising” was paid for by Russia and supported by Russian troops who removed their insignia and crossed the border to drive this insurgency (troops removing insignia is a violation of the Geneva Conventions, btw).

At nearly the same time Russia did the same thing in a couple of east Ukrainian provinces – the Donbas region. Ukraine did not cede this as easily as Crimea, and there has been a protracted war between the Ukrainian Army and the “separatists” (aka Russian mercenaries).

They tried the same “poop”(edit by HG) in Kharkiv – the city I was born in – the second largest city in Ukraine, predominantly Russian-speaking, 50km from the Russian border. It did not succeed, largely because of its larger population of educated people who resisted the installation of a puppet “separatist” leader.

——
What’s going on?

Today, after 8 years of skirmishes, Russia has launched a full-on invasion of Ukraine. They claim it’s because of NATO expansion, they claim it’s to “de-Nazify” the country (yes, the same country that overwhelmingly elected a Jew as president a few years ago), they claim it’s “peacekeeping” to free the "oppressed Russophone people".

These are all lies.

Russia may genuinely worry about NATO expansion, but the right place to solve this is at the negotiating table. The rest is 100% bullshit. A real reason I do find compelling (but that’s impossible to prove as it’s a “state-of-mind” thing) is that Putin’s power is threatened by a vibrant, functioning democracy next door. He is worried that Russians will look at how their neighbors are doing and will want the same for themselves…instead of the kleptocracy they live under. So this is personal to Putin, and he’s not necessarily guided by sober strategy.

——
What’s going to happen?

I have no crystal ball. I have optimistic outcomes and pessimistic ones. Reality will likely be somewhere in between, but who the hell knows?

Optimistic:
Ukrainians put up a fight. Even if/when the military is defeated, there’ll be a gun behind every bush and a bomb under every Russian tank. This is existential to them – they are fighting for their homeland, their freedom, their democracy. They hold no malice for all Russians, however they’ll be shooting at Putin’s army, not all Russians. Meanwhile Russian troops are not going to be as eager to fight their Ukrainian cousins, especially if it comes to civilian resistance.

Economic sanctions take a toll on Putin’s “nobles”. He controls them, but if his military power is undermined, they may be inclined to depose him. Combined with popular uprisings against the war and against Putin, this leads to his downfall and a revolution in Russia.

Pessimistic:
Ukrainians don’t put up a strong fight, the Russians overthrow the government and install a puppet regime. The West scratches itself and does nothing meaningful. Russian sanctions come and go, as EU members who have tight economic links lose the political will to inflict pain on themselves in order to save Ukraine.

Ukraine becomes an occupied country. Unchastened, 5 years from now, Putin invades Poland or Finland. NATO intervenes. Fin.

Either way:
Ukraine will be devastated by war. It will be set back years, if not decades in economic development. Thousands upon thousands will die in the coming months. It’s the worst.

——
How can I help?

Pay attention, for now. Support sanctions. Support a stronger NATO. Tell people who are willing to turn a blind eye to Russian imperialism because “US imperialism” that they’re tankie stooges. There will be donation drives in the days ahead – contribute what you can.

—Gene Feingold

Funny enough Finland was mentioned since this came out today.


I don't understand though the part about "standing up to Trump" given Biden and Obama and Merkel allowed the mess to fester but I digress at this point, interesting to learn this individual's view on it.
 
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