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Ammo Availability Predictions

wmg1299

wmg1299

Professional
I had a government job that provided me with ammo in 2008, and my young family took priority over range trips, so I completely missed that ammo crunch. All I really remember from the 2012 shortage was that .22 LR was difficult to find. That one didn't affect me too much because even with limits on the number of boxes buyers could purchase, I could usually grab a thousand rounds when I did find it.

For those of you who were avid shooters during those years, how did those shortages end? Did all the ammo start showing up on shelves at once, or did certain calibers start appearing way before others? Is this really the mother of all shortages, or were people saying the same things then that they are now? I know that any guesses on how and when this will end are merely speculation, but it's all I have to go on since I didn't pay enough attention the last few times it happened.
 
This shortage is slightly worse this time around, it seems. Ammo was usually available, just expensive last time.

Assuming things settle down over the next year—that is, no major events like we saw last summer or on Jan 6—I expect ammo will be regularly on shelves next spring, but prices will still be high (figure 2-3x 2019 prices) until well into 2024...and don’t expect to ever see 2019 prices again. I figure you’re going to end up with, say 9mm at about .25/rd when this is over—probably about a 50% increase all around.
 
One thing that is different this time, though—

Components—particularly primers—are GONE.

You could always find primers last time, but the just got a little more expensive (1.5-2x cost).

Now? They’re all gone.
 
HansGruber said:
One thing that is different this time, though—

Components—particularly primers—are GONE.

You could always find primers last time, but the just got a little more expensive (1.5-2x cost).

Now? They’re all gone.
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I wonder if that is due to Covid affecting the overseas plants that manufacture them?

I sure hope ammo prices return to 2019 levels. And waiting until 2024 would really suck. I've been blaming a lot of different things for this current crisis, but here lately, especially after several attempts to buy some 5.56 which was in stock when I began punching in my information, but then was out of stock by the time I hit submit, I have decided the main culprit is the same thing that is really the root of every F'ed up thing in the world. Greed and selfishness. If you are sitting on 6500 rounds of 5.56 and every time it becomes available you buy as much as they will sell you, you are a D-head. Are you waiting on armageddon? The fact is all that ammo isn't getting shot up any time soon and you are not going to be overrun by hordes of mercs. All you are doing is prolonging the price gouging and keeping guys that just want ammo to shoot from being able to get any.


I got piles and piles of .45. Enough that I don't even flinch at the thought of going to the range and dumping 400 rounds in one session. You don't see me buying up every bit of it I can find. I have enough 5.56 to take care of business, but not enough to hit the range with the frequency I need to train with this platform, which is new to me. Yeah it's my own fault. I should have bought an AR much sooner and started stocking up on ammo. I made the same mistake with 9mm. Nevertheless people that already have more than enough ought to sit the F down.

My wife drinks caffeine free diet coke. Right now it's hard to find and we go through no small amount of trouble fairly regularly to find it. When I do find it I don't buy every GD bottle on the shelf. Other people probably need some too.
 
Bassbob said:
I wonder if that is due to Covid affecting the overseas plants that manufacture them?

I sure hope ammo prices return to 2019 levels. And waiting until 2024 would really suck. I've been blaming a lot of different things for this current crisis, but here lately, especially after several attempts to buy some 5.56 which was in stock when I began punching in my information, but then was out of stock by the time I hit submit, I have decided the main culprit is the same thing that is really the root of every F'ed up thing in the world. Greed and selfishness. If you are sitting on 6500 rounds of 5.56 and every time it becomes available you buy as much as they will sell you, you are a D-head. Are you waiting on armageddon? The fact is all that ammo isn't getting shot up any time soon and you are not going to be overrun by hordes of mercs. All you are doing is prolonging the price gouging and keeping guys that just want ammo to shoot from being able to get any.


I got piles and piles of .45. Enough that I don't even flinch at the thought of going to the range and dumping 400 rounds in one session. You don't see me buying up every bit of it I can find. I have enough 5.56 to take care of business, but not enough to hit the range with the frequency I need to train with this platform, which is new to me. Yeah it's my own fault. I should have bought an AR much sooner and started stocking up on ammo. I made the same mistake with 9mm. Nevertheless people that already have more than enough ought to sit the F down.

My wife drinks caffeine free diet coke. Right now it's hard to find and we go through no small amount of trouble fairly regularly to find it. When I do find it I don't buy every GD bottle on the shelf. Other people probably need some too.
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Most primers that I see on shelves are(were!) US made—the big 3/4, being Federal, Winchester, Remington and CCI (technically Federal).

It’s possible that components for the primers itself—copper, and the chemicals to make the priming compound—are bottlenecked, though.

As to prices coming down to 2019 level? Highly unlikely.

After the initial scare in 2008-2009, ammo did not come down in price; pre-panic prices were normally .11/rd for 9mm, and .19 for .45 (brass cased; I remember buying cases of Wolf steel 9mm for $85, delivered, and Wolf .45 for $150); in 2010, when prices normalized again, it bottomed out at about .15/rd for 9mm, and .26 for .45. Then 2013...prices spiked again, and then came back down...but even in 2019 it never got down to pre-SH or even pre-Obama pricing.

My bet? When this settles out in 22-23, we’re going to be looking at .25/rd for 9mm, and around .40/rd for .45...and that’s as low as it gets.
 
Bassbob said:
I wonder if that is due to Covid affecting the overseas plants that manufacture them?

I sure hope ammo prices return to 2019 levels. And waiting until 2024 would really suck. I've been blaming a lot of different things for this current crisis, but here lately, especially after several attempts to buy some 5.56 which was in stock when I began punching in my information, but then was out of stock by the time I hit submit, I have decided the main culprit is the same thing that is really the root of every F'ed up thing in the world. Greed and selfishness. If you are sitting on 6500 rounds of 5.56 and every time it becomes available you buy as much as they will sell you, you are a D-head. Are you waiting on armageddon? The fact is all that ammo isn't getting shot up any time soon and you are not going to be overrun by hordes of mercs. All you are doing is prolonging the price gouging and keeping guys that just want ammo to shoot from being able to get any.


I got piles and piles of .45. Enough that I don't even flinch at the thought of going to the range and dumping 400 rounds in one session. You don't see me buying up every bit of it I can find. I have enough 5.56 to take care of business, but not enough to hit the range with the frequency I need to train with this platform, which is new to me. Yeah it's my own fault. I should have bought an AR much sooner and started stocking up on ammo. I made the same mistake with 9mm. Nevertheless people that already have more than enough ought to sit the F down.

My wife drinks caffeine free diet coke. Right now it's hard to find and we go through no small amount of trouble fairly regularly to find it. When I do find it I don't buy every GD bottle on the shelf. Other people probably need some too.
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"We" criticized the ignorance of TP hoarders and then did basically the same thing when the supply of something important to "us" was at risk.
 
StillLearning said:
"We" criticized the ignorance of TP hoarders and then did basically the same thing when the supply of something important to "us" was at risk.
Click to expand...

My wife is particular about TP. And she historically buys it when it goes on sale, in bulk. Subsequently we probably could have made a whole lot of money at the beginning of Covid since we were already sitting on a large stockpile of it.
 
Bassbob said:
My wife is particular about TP. And she historically buys it when it goes on sale, in bulk. Subsequently we probably could have made a whole lot of money at the beginning of Covid since we were already sitting on a large stockpile of it.
Click to expand...
We had JUST bought the COSTCO giant back a few days before the lockdown started. Felt pretty good about ourselves. Coasted all the way to supply returning.
 
StillLearning said:
We had JUST bought the COSTCO giant back a few days before the lockdown started. Felt pretty good about ourselves. Coasted all the way to supply returning.
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When the 2012 and 2008 shortages ended, did most calibers start showing up at once, or did certain calibers appear first? All of my local big box stores are out of everything, including target birdshot. I've never seen the 100 round Winchester target boxes of birdshot disappear from shelves in my life. That surprised me more than the whole toilet paper thing.
 
IF no major gun ban/ magazine ban/ online ammo ban is made in the next year, then next spring will see a relative return of inventory to pre-Covid levels.

However, with asinine bills already being filed, such as HR 127 by Sheila Jackson Lee, if these are an indication of the political agenda of the next year up until the midterms then an ammo shortage will remain indefinite.
 
wmg1299 said:
When the 2012 and 2008 shortages ended, did most calibers start showing up at once, or did certain calibers appear first? All of my local big box stores are out of everything, including target birdshot. I've never seen the 100 round Winchester target boxes of birdshot disappear from shelves in my life. That surprised me more than the whole toilet paper thing.
Click to expand...
This is an unprecedented ammo run because it's not just motivated by fear of a newly elected gun grabbing government as the last two times were.

This has the quadruple whammy of COVID, civil unrest, defund the police movement in major metros, and a gun grabbing government agenda all at play simultaneously.

So there are millions of new gun owners for the various reasons stated above on top of the already existing 400 million firearms already in circulation that have owners trying to stock up on more guns and ammo.
 
All my drills will be self-defense oriented like CQB with a pistol at 7-10 yds. to maintain skill levels. My club likes to have spinning targets, shooting stars, etc. to make things fun but to me that's not possible to burn up scarce/expensive ammo just for fun.

As well, my range time/drills with long guns will also be focused on maintaining self-defense/precision shooting skill levels vs. plinking for fun.
 
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