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Future War Will Be Fought with Sticks and Stones

Talyn

Emissary
Founding Member
The is author's op-ed....

Consider the words of scientist Albert Einstein who considered the devastation of a possible World War III fought with super weapons by uttering this famous quote.

“I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Fortunately, the author does point out that by observing the Russo-Ukraine conflict we get a glimpse into what will be wrought in the continual iteration of warfighting technologies. Innovation will be followed by continuously by countermeasure in a vicious cycle akin to a tiger chasing his tail. Eventually, he’s going to find it. And at that point, most of those tech advantages will become moot. The Author uses a phrase the, “Collapse of Connectivity”, and recommends revisiting the fall back.

The Paradox of Progress

For over a century, the trajectory of war has been defined by progress – faster aircraft, smarter bombs, and more connected command networks. Yet every step toward technological supremacy also increases fragility.

Modern militaries are built upon vulnerable foundations: GPS, communications satellites, and data-dependent logistics. An adversary that can disrupt those systems does not need to outgun its opponent; it only needs to unplug it. The U.S., the U.K., China, and Russia are all developing EMP and high-power microwave weapons designed to do exactly that.

The Authors' op-ed is sums things up...

#1

"When the satellites fall silent and the battlefield goes dark, war will return to its oldest form – fought by those who can see, move, and shoot without power. And that, paradoxically, will make them the most advanced soldiers of all."

Lessons from Ukraine: The Return to Analogue

The war in Ukraine has already previewed this future and ushered in the return of trench warfare – something once thought consigned to the past. Both sides employ extensive electronic warfare, jamming GPS and communications across the front.

Ukrainian units now use runners, paper maps, and wired field telephones because radios are routinely intercepted or disabled. Drones now dominate the battlefield – until they don’t, as when weather or jamming grounds them, troops revert to trench warfare that could be mistaken for the Somme.

These realities have forced Western military planners and command structures to reconsider their assumptions – the U.S. Army’s recent training updates include renewed emphasis on map reading, camouflage, and radio silence. NATO exercises now simulate environments where GPS and satellite communications are denied.

#2

“The general who prepared his men to live off the land, fight without GPS, and communicate by physical means will prove more modern than any AI strategist.”

Train in the basics to complement the bells & whistles of the higher tech.

As the author says...War remains a human endeavor. The force that can maintain the ability to adapt and maneuver will be victorious.

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Maybe it is just me, but I think we owe a bit of grotto Ikraine for their innovative approach to warfare. They have shown us what works and what does not, both in the supplied equipment and munitions and in their own inventive equipment. Now that we know what works, we just need to increase drastically our supply!
 
Even thought that oft quoted WWIV of Einstein's is popular, I call bs. Some country, or war fighting faction, warlord or survivors WILL have some stored away modern weaponry. Whether bots, auto jets, helis, armored vehicles etc, idk, but some will be stored away and be used afterwards.
 
I agree in general. Paper maps...err..with acetate, proper radio procedures. anti-jamming techniques, use of wire (btw Patton kicked off an attack using all wire comms) all bring back memories of the 70s, 80s and through the Gulf War excepting GPS and Loran. However, my experience in an FSU in the mid-aughts taught me these guys hadn't progressed beyond roadmarch ducks in a row, deploy into battalions at point x, companies at point y, etc. You know, the typical Warsaw Pact strict control formation stuff. No maps and limited radios apply. Videos show one or two tanks playing follow the leader and asking for a strike. So how much is relearning and how much is learning needs to be assessed.

One other thing. How much of the technology will actually change future warfare is debatable. I would have to see the AARs and know who authored them and what the sources were before I would make sweeping pronouncements.

Case in point:

 
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