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Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year

Hammer67

Hammer67

Professional
"The U.S. is on course to end 2023 with one of the largest annual drops in homicides on record, according to preliminary figures from AH Datalytics, a data analysis firm...."


Good news. This part made me chuckle/roll my eyes, though:

"Why it matters: The findings appear to be at odds with Americans' perception of crime both in their communities and in the rest of the country..."

Gee, I wonder why so many people have that perception, when it as at odds with the facts? Maybe it's because the media and certain politicians have been spending a great deal of time fear-mongering and getting everyone to believe that violent crime is getting massively worse in this country, in part so that they can push the gun control agenda?

Ignore the hype (on both sides), pay attention to the data.
 
I am wary of anything from Axios.
The company, AH, never clearly stated where their data is from. AH is a data analysis company which makes me immediately think “data massage”. There is a big difference between raw data and analyzed data. I’ve been dealing with data for close to 30 years in my line of work and if data origin is not cited from a reliable source or if estimates, projections or modeled data is presented I do not take the figures or conclusions seriously. Be careful.
 
mikep said:
I am wary of anything from Axios.
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I am wary of Axios as well, esp. as a single source for anything, which is why I'm trying to verify it. I haven't seen this reported elsewhere (yet), but I'll be curious to see whether it is over the next few days.

Then again, a downward trend is consistent with the overall trend of the last several decades of a decline in violent crime in the U.S. (well documented by many different sources), other than an uptick in violent crime during Covid. But hardly anyone reported that general trend either, probably because it is at odds with the general media narrative of convincing everyone that everything is going to hell, and that it's the other side's fault.
 
Also, if memory serves me correctly, GVA and the FBI have very different definitions of mass shootings, which is why they are so often quoted so often by anti-2a politicians.
 
mikep said:
Also, if memory serves me correctly, GVA and the FBI have very different definitions of mass shootings, which is why they are so often quoted so often by anti-2a politicians.
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For sure - the lack of generally-accepted criteria for what constitutes a "mass shooting" is a big problem with a lot of reporting, and is frequently misused to suit the narrative.
 
Hammer67 said:
I am wary of Axios as well, esp. as a single source for anything, which is why I'm trying to verify it. I haven't seen this reported elsewhere (yet), but I'll be curious to see whether it is over the next few days.

Then again, a downward trend is consistent with the overall trend of the last several decades of a decline in violent crime in the U.S. (well documented by many different sources), other than an uptick in violent crime during Covid. But hardly anyone reported that general trend either, probably because it is at odds with the general media narrative of convincing everyone that everything is going to hell, and that it's the other side's fault.
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A downward trend in violent crime would also be beneficial to a politician running for re-election. Couple that with Axios, GVA and this company AH and there you have it. I know cynical, but that’s me.
 
This is their “get out of jail free” card. From the article:
  • And considering that the data AH Datalytics used to create its estimates is preliminary, the eventual official homicide statistics for 2023 will likely be slightly different.
The article also uses verbiage that is vague at best, such as “could be”, “suggests”, “likely”. All red flags.
 
On that note, according to the publicly-available FBI stats on their website:

The FBI’s crime statistic estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates:
  • Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year.

And, consistent with numerous previous years, the category of "Murder by Weapon" shows the sub-categories of "Knives" and "Hands/Fists/Feet" were responsible for more homicides than "Rifles." Keep in mind that's all rifles, and the dreaded "assault rifle" would be an even smaller subset of that:

Screenshot 2023-12-28 at 5.46.01 PM.png
 
Hammer67 said:
On that note, according to the publicly-available FBI stats on their website:

The FBI’s crime statistic estimates for 2022 show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates:
  • Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2022 estimated nationwide decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous year.

And, consistent with numerous previous years, the category of "Murder by Weapon" the sub-categories of "Knives" and "Hands/Fists/Feet" were responsible for more homicides than "Rifles." Keep in mind that's all rifles, and the dreaded "assault rifle" would be an even smaller subset of that:

View attachment 49650
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I would tend to believe the FBI stats above others.
 
mikep said:
A downward trend in violent crime would also be beneficial to a politician running for re-election. Couple that with Axios, GVA and this company AH and there you have it. I know cynical, but that’s me.
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I don't think I'm ready to believe that the FBI is altering their violent crime statistics to suit a particular candidate for office. So-called "independent" research institutions? No doubt some of those are.

For example, if the FBI was so "bought and paid for" that it was altering its data to suit a political agenda, then why aren't they posting that "Assault Rifles" are responsible for a lot more homicides than they actually are? Isn't this exactly what the Dem Party and Dem President want people to believe? But in reality, the FBI's public data shows exactly the opposite.
 
And violent crime has increased by 17% in Chicago in 2023, the same has likely occurred in other large cities controlled by a certain party.
 
Ok, so then if you believe this is all just partisan BS, and that the opposite is actually true - that violent crime is on the rise, do you have data and sources for that? Or is it just a popular perception that is being regurgitated until everyone believes it?

Personally, I've seen no convincing indicators that there has been a massive increase in violent crime across the country. Certain specific places, yes, but not countrywide. I'm all ears though, if anyone wants to provide the data to prove that wrong...
 
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Here is a graph from a study on violent crime by Pew Research in 2022. It shows the dramatic drop in violent crime from '93 to '21. That includes 12 years of Republican Presidents, including all four years of the Trump Presidency. The source is the U.S. Bureau of Statistics. But yeah, I'm sure the BOS have secretly conspired to make every Dem President look good, but also somehow they were also conspiring against the Republican Presidents as well, by showing the exact same trend across all that time, right?

Or....maybe the data is accurate, and actually shows a long-term trend that has nothing to do with which party was in power? Naw, that's much more far-fetched...🤣

www.pewresearch.org

Federal surveys show no increase in U.S. violent crime rate since start of the pandemic

www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

ft_2022.10.31_violent-crime_02c.png.jpeg
 
Kinda hard to believe there's a drop when local TV reported the 393rd homicide in Memphis this year just a few hours ago. :rolleyes:

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics" - Mark Twain
 
Hammer67 said:
Ok, so then if you believe this is all just partisan BS, and that the opposite is actually true - that violent crime is on the rise, do you have data and sources for that? Or is it just a popular perception that is being regurgitated until everyone believes it?

Personally, I've seen no convincing indicators that there has been a massive increase in violent crime across the country. Certain specific places, yes, but not countrywide. I'm all ears though, if anyone wants to provide the data to prove that wrong...
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I agree with you that violent crime is trending downward overall when looking at bjs and fbi stats. The absolute numbers for incidents/capita for those two datasets differ, however, by ~4-fold. Regardless, the trend is similar. What trends don’t capture are the local events, ie; increases in cities like NYC, Memphis, Chicago etc.
When compared to the early ‘90s the violent crime in NYC, for example, was unimaginably high by today’s standards. Over time it decreased to very low levels and stayed there. But now that it is creeping back up (not near the ‘90s levels) the “felt impact” is much greater because it was so low for so long.
From a data representation point of view it would be more useful to the reader to represent these stats as %increase/decrease year over year. The numbers wouldn’t be as large, and the swings not so great, and the graphs would certainly not be as “sexy”, but it would be a better indicator if how violent crime changes over time.
 
Hammer67 said:
I don't think I'm ready to believe that the FBI is altering their violent crime statistics to suit a particular candidate for office. So-called "independent" research institutions? No doubt some of those are.

For example, if the FBI was so "bought and paid for" that it was altering its data to suit a political agenda, then why aren't they posting that "Assault Rifles" are responsible for a lot more homicides than they actually are? Isn't this exactly what the Dem Party and Dem President want people to believe? But in reality, the FBI's public data shows exactly the opposite.
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The FBI has already been caught via email and sunshine laws doctoring or omitting stats to suit a particular ideology. Not a specific candidate, but sure as hell a specific group of politicians.
 
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