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Price Predictions for Mainstream Calibers that aren't 9mm or .223/5.56?

wmg1299

wmg1299

Professional
I'm making some decisions about my collection, but they are getting complicated by the uncertainty of ammo prices and availability for .22 WMR, and .38 Special.

.22 Magnum: When 9mm FMJ ammo shot up to $30 per 50 round box, .45 ACP was even higher (if you could find it), and .38 SPL just disappeared completely, .22 WMR was my saving grace. Ammo was plentiful at $11.99 - $13.99 per box, and my Rock Island 22XT could satisfy my semi-auto itch while my S&W 351PD and 351C could meet my revolver fix. For the past several months, .22 WMR has cost more than 9mm. Guns like the new Walther WMP interest me, but I can't justify a $500 MSRP if ammo prices are going to continue to rise.

.38 Special: I didn't expect manufacturers to crank out as much .38 SPL as 9mm and .223/5.56 during the heart of the 2020 ammo rush, but its been 2 years. On the rare occasions when .38 SPL is on the shelf in my area, it's still in the $.60 - $.75 per round range for FMJ. I've always kept my eyes open for deals on used revolvers, but I'm not sure if I want to acquire many more if ammo is going to be rare and expensive for years to come.

What is your best guess for mainstream calibers that aren't 9mm, .223/5.56? Can I expect to see other common calibers readily available at reasonable prices in the near future, or will the current ammo situation linger indefinitely?
 
wmg1299 said:
I'm making some decisions about my collection, but they are getting complicated by the uncertainty of ammo prices and availability for .22 WMR, and .38 Special.

.22 Magnum: When 9mm FMJ ammo shot up to $30 per 50 round box, .45 ACP was even higher (if you could find it), and .38 SPL just disappeared completely, .22 WMR was my saving grace. Ammo was plentiful at $11.99 - $13.99 per box, and my Rock Island 22XT could satisfy my semi-auto itch while my S&W 351PD and 351C could meet my revolver fix. For the past several months, .22 WMR has cost more than 9mm. Guns like the new Walther WMP interest me, but I can't justify a $500 MSRP if ammo prices are going to continue to rise.

.38 Special: I didn't expect manufacturers to crank out as much .38 SPL as 9mm and .223/5.56 during the heart of the 2020 ammo rush, but its been 2 years. On the rare occasions when .38 SPL is on the shelf in my area, it's still in the $.60 - $.75 per round range for FMJ. I've always kept my eyes open for deals on used revolvers, but I'm not sure if I want to acquire many more if ammo is going to be rare and expensive for years to come.

What is your best guess for mainstream calibers that aren't 9mm, .223/5.56? Can I expect to see other common calibers readily available at reasonable prices in the near future, or will the current ammo situation linger indefinitely?
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I am hoping for more in .44 special and .44 mag since I’m in the market for the forty-four, in my area .38spec is abundant while .357 mag is available, but not in great numbers, 45 Colt you can find but very expensive. Just got some Federal .45acp in 230gr for 24.95 for a box of 50, 9mm 115gr is 19.99 for a box of 50 and 10mm is 25.99 for a box of 50, also these calibers are readily available
 
Annihilator said:
I am hoping for more in .44 special and .44 mag since I’m in the market for the forty-four, in my area .38spec is abundant while .357 mag is available, but not in great numbers, 45 Colt you can find but very expensive. Just got some Federal .45acp in 230gr for 24.95 for a box of 50, 9mm 115gr is 19.99 for a box of 50 and 10mm is 25.99 for a box of 50, also these calibers are readily available
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I would also like to see .44 Special and .44 Magnum. My only .44 Magnum firearm is a Marlin 1894 Levergun. It may be a Remlin, but it has run flawlessly for me. I have a Charter Arms Bulldog in .44 Special, so I can share ammo to some extent. The Bulldog has not run flawlessly, but it has a lot of character and I believe that Charter Arms got it running right after a short trip back to the factory.

I haven't put any .44 Special through the 1894 yet, because every time I've found .44 SPL ammo it has been more expensive than .44 Mag. I'm willing to be more patient with .44 because both guns only made occasional trips to the range or family land. I fire .38 SPL and .22 WMR much more frequently.
 
wmg1299 said:
I'm making some decisions about my collection, but they are getting complicated by the uncertainty of ammo prices and availability for .22 WMR, and .38 Special.

.22 Magnum: When 9mm FMJ ammo shot up to $30 per 50 round box, .45 ACP was even higher (if you could find it), and .38 SPL just disappeared completely, .22 WMR was my saving grace. Ammo was plentiful at $11.99 - $13.99 per box, and my Rock Island 22XT could satisfy my semi-auto itch while my S&W 351PD and 351C could meet my revolver fix. For the past several months, .22 WMR has cost more than 9mm. Guns like the new Walther WMP interest me, but I can't justify a $500 MSRP if ammo prices are going to continue to rise.

.38 Special: I didn't expect manufacturers to crank out as much .38 SPL as 9mm and .223/5.56 during the heart of the 2020 ammo rush, but its been 2 years. On the rare occasions when .38 SPL is on the shelf in my area, it's still in the $.60 - $.75 per round range for FMJ. I've always kept my eyes open for deals on used revolvers, but I'm not sure if I want to acquire many more if ammo is going to be rare and expensive for years to come.

What is your best guess for mainstream calibers that aren't 9mm, .223/5.56? Can I expect to see other common calibers readily available at reasonable prices in the near future, or will the current ammo situation linger indefinitely?
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.22WMR price per round has pretty much always been on par or slightly higher than 9mm. The commonality of 9mm keeps the price down lower, though .22WMR has been picking up some traction lately and it maybe a long time if it ever gains widespread use which can have the effect to drive the price down.
 
Midway has a good selection of ammo in stock, and some even qualify for free shipping some times.
They have even started "sale" prices on some brands, Hornady IMI for example.

Just in Remington / UMC they have:
45 ACP
380 ACP
38 special
38 special +P
44 mag
44 special
40 S&W
357 mag
32 S&W
30 Super Carry

I don't see ammo prices raising any more, the copper, tin and zinc metal prices are down quite a bit.
Lead is down about 10% compared to most of the last year.
Copper about 15%
tin about 20%
zinc is down to about what it was year ago.

Lead Prices for the Last Year
You can select other metals from that page.
 
I started downsizing my guns to limit calibers about 1.5 years ago, for my handguns I’m down to…..
.38s/.357 40SW 45ACP and 10mm
Availability in all 4 calibers has increased in the last 6 months and prices have come down, that being said prices are still high enough for me that I’ve limited my range time slightly.

My only rifle is my M1A in .308
For that I’ve had no issue finding rounds, unfortunately it’s always been expensive.
 
Though ammo pricing came down a bit and Brandon Falls inflation went up…net zero ?
I wish, we’re at negative net zero.
We touched on .38 Spl yesterday, today I found PMC at +60¢ rnd FMJ. I need to either buy more or practice shoot less. Distributor inventories are building and sometimes its why there are “sales” and “clearances” in retail, not so much when it comes to ammo but penny pinching is what happens. Ebb and flow hasn’t happened in ammo. Whatever they produce they sell, somewhere. Does a banana get cheaper when it gets brown spots?

If they can draw a huge profit on 9mm/223 would that bring down the rest of the spectrum?
Car manufacturers do this with and found it’s not profitable to produce “base models”. Ubiquitous ammo such as 9/223 have a solid, reliable niche in these times. I think the profit will continue in these calibers both in availability and popularity. If theres a market, they produce to meet it, hence we see the dwindling popularity of .38 succumbing to the 9mm.
Maybe making rifle ammo more scarce will eventually raise those related calibers, as 556 is on the scope of WDC overreach, and who knows what WDC has in store with the current world turmoil, disastrous foreign policy and inept meddling they created.

I don’t think we’ll return to any pre-Virus pricing (16¢ 9mm, 30¢ 223) not until we get the energy shortage issue cleared up. Yes, the ammo supply chain has been replenished for now, it still costing more to get these items from the related suppliers…abroad. As stated metals prices have fallen, but every other mfg cost has more than doubled…except for employee benefits.

BTW, do you notice profits are soaring in the pharmaceutical industry, they're not worried or squawking about transportation costs or supply chain delays.

The stranglehold comes from WDC. No surprise it costs more for transportation and all energy costs have skyrocketed. The cost to make a bullet has to factor everything involved including employee wage and benefits.
 
Before COVID I was using 21,000 rounds a year in my training business. 9mm, .45, and 5.56 and 12ga were cheap. Industry experts have said it was so cheap because they had over-produced, and the surplus supply brought prices down. Trump had a stabilizing influence on the industry. Then the gun buying binge started during COVID and BLM riots and Brandon's election, and the manufacturers could not keep up with demand. Remington being out of the ammo picture for a while added to shortages. I closed my training business down after 8 years due in part to the cost and unavailability of ammo. I go into gun shops to look for ammo but when I see the prices I just walk out in disgust. I just refuse to pay those ridiculous prices.

Industry experts have said they are metering production to avoid stockpiling vast amounts of surplus. But I have to believe that Americans can only hoard so much ammo. At some point the market has to become saturated and prices level off at a reasonable level. Fuel costs and inflation will keep prices higher than we would like but it has to level off.
 
When every federal department orders massive quantities of ammo and the military also needs same for operations around the globe, those calibers are definitely affected. Manufacturers say they are running 24/7 trying to keep up and when they get components, they make more money selling premium products which come 20-25/box instead of pumping out range ammo or components to sell to reloaders. Throw in anti-gun politicians, the Covid mess and millions of new gun owners, you have serious oh-sh** moments that have continued for the past two years.
We may see some moderation at some point, but it will likely be at a price point no one will be happy with. Can you imagine a time in the future when you fondly recall the good old days of today? Scary isn't it?
 
HayesGreener said:
I closed my training business down after 8 years due in part to the cost and unavailability of ammo. I go into gun shops to look for ammo but when I see the prices I just walk out in disgust. I just refuse to pay those ridiculous prices.
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Your reaction to ammo prices is very similar to mine, and it seems to be a very common reaction. This is why I'm puzzled by the current market. I always kept about 1000 rounds per caliber I shoot on hand, and sometimes had a little more if I found a great deal. Because of this practice, I did not engage in the apparent hoarding that occurred in 2020.

While I saw many quick-gain investors and last-minute preppers waiting in lines for ammo in 2020, I haven't seen either of these groups for quite a while. The shelves at my local Academy are absolutely bursting with 9mm, .223/5.56, .45 ACP, .40 S&W, .380 ACP, and a few rifle calibers. The two things that are rare at my local Academy are .38 Special and customers actually buying ammo. It may not be the most scientific evidence, but I see many more people leaving the ammo section empty handed than I see making a purchase.

While I admit that there are always things going on behind the curtain that I can't see, the reactions of big-box stores to the current market puzzle me. When it becomes apparent that customers have stopped buying many calibers at the current prices, I normally expect stores to adjust inventory by lowering prices or stocking different calibers. Neither of these things seems to be happening, and its got me wondering what about the future strategy.
 
wmg1299 said:
I would also like to see .44 Special and .44 Magnum. My only .44 Magnum firearm is a Marlin 1894 Levergun. It may be a Remlin, but it has run flawlessly for me. I have a Charter Arms Bulldog in .44 Special, so I can share ammo to some extent. The Bulldog has not run flawlessly, but it has a lot of character and I believe that Charter Arms got it running right after a short trip back to the factory.

I haven't put any .44 Special through the 1894 yet, because every time I've found .44 SPL ammo it has been more expensive than .44 Mag. I'm willing to be more patient with .44 because both guns only made occasional trips to the range or family land. I fire .38 SPL and .22 WMR much more frequently.
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44 mag is around and reasonable here.
 
wmg1299 said:
Your reaction to ammo prices is very similar to mine, and it seems to be a very common reaction. This is why I'm puzzled by the current market. I always kept about 1000 rounds per caliber I shoot on hand, and sometimes had a little more if I found a great deal. Because of this practice, I did not engage in the apparent hoarding that occurred in 2020.

While I saw many quick-gain investors and last-minute preppers waiting in lines for ammo in 2020, I haven't seen either of these groups for quite a while. The shelves at my local Academy are absolutely bursting with 9mm, .223/5.56, .45 ACP, .40 S&W, .380 ACP, and a few rifle calibers. The two things that are rare at my local Academy are .38 Special and customers actually buying ammo. It may not be the most scientific evidence, but I see many more people leaving the ammo section empty handed than I see making a purchase.

While I admit that there are always things going on behind the curtain that I can't see, the reactions of big-box stores to the current market puzzle me. When it becomes apparent that customers have stopped buying many calibers at the current prices, I normally expect stores to adjust inventory by lowering prices or stocking different calibers. Neither of these things seems to be happening, and its got me wondering what about the future strategy.
Click to expand...
I am one of those schmucks walking in, seeing the price, and walking out empty-handed (usually). I compare what I see in front of me with prices I pay online, and I leave disappointed. Best ammo prices are generally not at the box stores near me, however. They are at high-volume gun stores that only sell guns (not fishing, not hiking, not boating gear).

This is certainly an indefinite problem with no end in sight yet. Politics, supply-chain, raw materials...all are relatively unstable for anything non-NATO. Yes it's better...but...😡
 
I can reload one 50 round box of .45 Colt or Schofield for under $12 using a 185 gr. bullet. I used to do this for about $5.50/box, but have you checked prices online?
 
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