430mm is 16.92” nearly 17” not 8” just a note for the author. Not sure if it’s a typo or miscalculation. Very fascinating article. I’m a former Cold War analyst and the actual suitcase nukes and similar WMD were very much a concern especially with the porous Soviet arms inventory system. I have never encountered one of these in the field/war zone so I found this to be very interesting. I am guessing the Soviets and subsequent Russian Federation has kept a tight leash on these systems, hence not seeing them in the wild.
Some clarification is in order from an old soldier.
First, the Sagger, though similar in concept to the TOW, is not "much like" the TOW. The AT-3 is a first generation ATGM which means the operator has to actively fly the missile to the target while ensuring both the target and the missile remain in his optics field of view. The TOW was semi-autonomous meaning the gunner just had to keep the crosshairs on the target enabling the missile to be much faster than earlier ATGMs including the Sagger.
Second, this is why the IDF tankers quickly developed Sagger drills to combat the missile which entailed jinking at the last minute to throw off the gunner's tracking. Changing tactics, techniques and procedures is a lot cheaper and quicker than waiting for ERA armor. These drills were basically copied by the US Army. And, it helped the Arab units in that the IDF armor units initially counterattacked without combined arms; i.e., they were without infantry and artillery.
Third. Saggers mowing down hundreds of Israeli tanks is debatable. The IDF had about 800 tanks knocked out in the Yom Kippur War of which 75% were due to Arab tanks not ATGMs. The other 200 were due to AT-3, RPG, mines, aircraft, etc.
Saggers were certainly an important player on the battlefield, but their effect shouldn't be exaggerated.