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Is .40 S&W really dying?

I don’t think we’re going to see a resurgence of the .40 like we did with the 10mm.

The .40 came about during the perfect storm of reduced capacity magazines and poor performance from 9mm JHP’s…both of these situations have changed.

Honestly, besides S&W (who has a stake in cartridge), has anyone come out with a new .40 design in the past several years (and that was a carbine)? The Gen5 Glocks are maybe the last “new” pistols I can think of; S&W didn’t introduce the Shield+ models in .40…

Will the round be available for the foreseeable future? Yes; I don’t think you’ll have trouble finding .40 on ammo shelves ever…but you aren’t going to see a whole lot of new .40 pistols being made.
 
I don’t think we’re going to see a resurgence of the .40 like we did with the 10mm.

The .40 came about during the perfect storm of reduced capacity magazines and poor performance from 9mm JHP’s…both of these situations have changed.

Honestly, besides S&W (who has a stake in cartridge), has anyone come out with a new .40 design in the past several years (and that was a carbine)? The Gen5 Glocks are maybe the last “new” pistols I can think of; S&W didn’t introduce the Shield+ models in .40…

Will the round be available for the foreseeable future? Yes; I don’t think you’ll have trouble finding .40 on ammo shelves ever…but you aren’t going to see a whole lot of new .40 pistols being made.
s&W just released their M&P Metal in 40, Dan Wesson released theor DMX in 40 there’s still some LE interest California HWY Patrol as well as South Dakota HWY Patrol and Illinois State run 40’s

But all that aside thwre are so many 40 call guns out there it’s not going anywhere. Especially with all the components other tjan case is used in the 10mm
 
What is 10 mm doing?
The biggest issue with the 10mm is short of Tw Boutique rounds that most folks (if you regularly find these stocked your the exception as that’s it the situation in most of the country) uiu have to order ammo that’s loaded to true 10 mm ballistics like Buffalo Bore or Double tap etc. that load it to what Norma did with a 200 grain at 1,400 fps

So most Winchester Remington federal is not really much than what a 40 S&W is

That said what we have learned of bullet design and velocity since the late 1980’s early 1990’s you really don’t need all the speed to get them to do what they need to do. But some folks want to be took time and more power.
 
When the .40 first came out I fell for all the hype. .45 power with 9mm capacity! I bought a S&W 4006 when they first came out. I spent two years trying to get that thing to shoot worth a damn and failed miserably. I tried every factory load and reloaded everything I could find. Never could get it to shoot anywhere near my 9mms or .45s. Finally gave up and tried to sell it. Nope! Nobody wanted it. Couldn't hardly give the damned thing away. Finally traded it off to a local dealer. Lost my butt on the deal, but I was just glad to be rid of it.
Since then, I have shot a few .40s from time to time, still hate the caliber and will never own another. 🤬
At gun shows I've had people approach me trying to sell a .40. I say no thanks and often they reply "that's what everybody is telling me."
The .40 does have a small but loyal following. But I believe its falling into the niche cartridge category and will likely never become truly popular.
 
Sure the .40 is on the downside of it's peak in popularity, but it's neither dead or dying.

Think about it, the .44 Special is well below it's peak, but not dead.
The .44 magnum is below it's peak (after the Dirty Harry days) but not dead.
The .357 magnum is on the backside of it's popularity peak, but it's not dead.
Everyone claimed the .30-06 would die after the military adopted the .308 and the .5.56, but it didn't happen.
The .22 short, .32 ACP, .38 S&W, and 41 magnum are past their popularity heyday, but not dead.
 
It definitely takes a bit more to hold onto a .40 than a 9mm or a .45, because of the snappy recoil. Me, I like it. After retiring, being retired, I spent 4 years in Executive Protection. Bought a Sigma 40 and carried it in a shoulder rig. Never used it, thankfully, but did a lot of practice. The concept that9mm bullets have improved mightily, so have .40 bullets. .355 vs .401 makes the difference. When you are out on your own, in a potential sh,t show, more effective is…more effective. Maybe if there were double stack .45s around then, but,I do tend to like the .40!
 
It definitely takes a bit more to hold onto a .40 than a 9mm or a .45, because of the snappy recoil. Me, I like it. After retiring, being retired, I spent 4 years in Executive Protection. Bought a Sigma 40 and carried it in a shoulder rig. Never used it, thankfully, but did a lot of practice. The concept that9mm bullets have improved mightily, so have .40 bullets. .355 vs .401 makes the difference. When you are out on your own, in a potential sh,t show, more effective is…more effective. Maybe if there were double stack .45s around then, but,I do tend to like the .40!
There’s no real evidence that .40 is actually more effective (see the Ellifritz study) than 9mm.

Additionally, all things being equal, 9mm will be faster on follow-up shots than .40.
 
I had 3 40 cal pistols. A S&W 4006 which my sample had absolutely no accuracy in it. Then I picked up a Para Ordinance Limited P16 for USPSA (whe USPSA had only 2 divisions and 2 power factors)
The feed ramp was rather steep and had a habit of pushing the bullet into the case but it was accurate.

My son was 12 at the time and wanted to shoot matches so I got rid of the P16 and picked up a Glock 35 and it was a great shooter and my pet reload was 5.9 gr of Win super field.

I ended up selling the 34 and sort of kicked myself but this was 2012 and it was to the point 40 didn’t do anything for me that a 9mm wouldn’t. And the fact I was given 9mm for proficiency ammo well it was a no brainer.

30 had its day and if it’s what you like them you do you.
 
Have 10s, that said, used many a range buddy's or range rental .40. I'll stick with the 10 - underwood or BB or other premium brands for serious use - regular stuff for fun at the range.
I love my M&P 10MM. I actually carry it more often than not. I kinda like the G23 gen 5 because it’s better than a 9mm but almost as punishing as my M&P 10MM
 
Sure the .40 is on the downside of it's peak in popularity, but it's neither dead or dying.

Think about it, the .44 Special is well below it's peak, but not dead.
The .44 magnum is below it's peak (after the Dirty Harry days) but not dead.
The .357 magnum is on the backside of it's popularity peak, but it's not dead.
Everyone claimed the .30-06 would die after the military adopted the .308 and the .5.56, but it didn't happen.
The .22 short, .32 ACP, .38 S&W, and 41 magnum are past their popularity heyday, but not dead.
Good point.
 
s&W just released their M&P Metal in 40, Dan Wesson released theor DMX in 40 there’s still some LE interest California HWY Patrol as well as South Dakota HWY Patrol and Illinois State run 40’s

But all that aside thwre are so many 40 call guns out there it’s not going anywhere. Especially with all the components other tjan case is used in the 10mm
I honestly wish I had the money for the M&P40 M2.0 in metal. I honestly like how it felt in the hand compared to the other 2 M&P’s I have. Don’t get me wrong the G23 I have is solid and shoots great along with reliability.
 
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