Here's my take as a complete gun/ammo industry outsider with NO first-hand "inside source."
As a software engineer I've been an amateur student of "systems" throughout my time in that profession. A system, by definition, is any combination of two or more things designed to produce a given result. One of the best books on the topic is The Fifth Discipline.
In a system, any one part/input/adjustment etc. can have unanticipated effects on other parts throughout the system right down to the final output of the system. Start tweaking more than one thing at a time and things can get really wild. Supply chains, are by this definition, a system. A supply chain can be "tweaked" by a crap-ton of different variables, some real and some psychological. EVERYONE saw this play out during the C19 scamdemic BIG TIME. In my estimation, the supply chain ripples from C19 are STILL in play.
The ammo production and supply pipeline is a classic large and complex system, subject to a LOT of different inputs, mechanisms, marketing schemes and manipulation, internet rumors and fact, politics, scarcity/surplus of input raw materials, diversion of said raw materials to alternative uses, increased/decreased demand for completed small caliber rounds in specific loadings (think military rounds), the psychological effects of rumors and the outright lies of politicians. In other words, there are myriads of variables that can be and do get tweaked daily.
Nations have resources to stockpile ammo by orders of magnitude greater than the wealthiest of civilians. Thus the "stockpile" of finished ammo and components available to the non-military market is minuscule by comparison. Nations like to fight wars. Wars require munitions. In the case of rain, the war will be held in the gymnasium. In this sense, every single round of complete ammo (or components for reloaders) is "military surplus." In this cutthroat era of international corporations, if a given manufacturer/supplier at any stage of the supply chain can profit more by diverting their production or resources to military contracts rather than to the civilian market, they will do so without hesitation.
Bottom line: I don't have a clue as to what to believe other than either the stocked up shelves at physical retailers or "In Stock" labels on various web sites selling ammunition. If it's available when I go to buy it, there is no shortage. If it's unavailable, there's a shortage (at least for me at that moment).
Pardon me, but has been more of an old man's rant than a clear explanation of system theory as applied to the ammo supply. I do feel better now.
