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US, Israel launch attack on Iran as Trump announces 'major combat operations'


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Last night's ISW update.


Key Takeaways​

  1. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued strikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure in order to degrade Iranian missile capabilities. The IDF reported on March 5 that Israeli aircraft had struck hundreds of missile launch sites across Iran and rendered over 300 ballistic missile launchers inoperable since February 28. Degrading Iranian air defenses allows US and Israeli aircraft to operate with less risk and greater freedom of operation over Iranian airspace.
  2. The US and Israeli combined force has advanced to the next phase of their campaign, which will focus on targeting Iranian defense industrial assets, especially missile production facilities. The first phase of the campaign suppressed Iranian air defenses, decapitated its command and control, and limited its ability to retaliate with ballistic missiles and drones. The IDF issued an evacuation warning on March 5 for the Abbas Abad Industrial Zone and Shenzar Industrial Zone in Pakdasht, Tehran Province, likely in preparation to target Iran’s defense industrial base.
  3. The combined force continues to conduct airstrikes targeting key internal security sites in and around Tehran City as well as Kurdish-populated areas of northwestern Iran. These targets range from regional Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) headquarters to local police stations in areas that have been hotspots for unrest.
  4. The combined forces have continued to strike the IRGC Ground Forces’ special forces and rapid response units in southwestern Iran. The combined force has not yet struck other IRGC or Artesh special forces bases or infrastructure at scale across the country. The internet shutdown may be affecting ISW-CTP’s ability to observe these strikes, however.
  5. US President Donald Trump said on March 5 that he would support Kurdish forces conducting an offensive into Iran. Trump told Reuters that he would be “all for” a Kurdish offensive into Iran but did not commit to supporting the operation with airstrikes. Senior Iraqi Kurdish officials have denied that Kurdish forces are deploying or planning to deploy into Iran, however.
  6. US President Donald Trump told Western media on March 5 that the United States must be involved in the process of selecting a new supreme leader in Iran. Trump stated that he will not accept a new Iranian leader who will continue former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s policies.
  7. The Artesh and Iranian state media claimed that Iranian forces carried out drone strikes against US forces at Camp Buehring, Kuwait, on March 5. The Iranian Artesh separately launched drone strikes that targeted a US base in Erbil, Iraq, on March 5, according to Iranian media.
 

Related...

CBS News has reported that quadcopter-type drones may have conducted surveillance of U.S. facilities in Kuwait ahead of an attack that killed six American servicemembers.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Russia is reportedly sharing intelligence with Iran to support Iranian attacks against US forces in the Middle East, which highlights the deepening cooperation between two major US adversaries. Iran may not have regular access to high-quality satellite imagery, even from commercially available sources, and may be relying on Russia to get such imagery. Russian intelligence sharing, thus, may be supporting Iranian strikes on US military assets. Multiple people familiar with US intelligence stated that China may be preparing to provide Iran with financial assistance and missile components.​
  • The US-Israeli combined force has continued strikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure in order to degrade Iranian missile capabilities and ultimately destroy the Iranian ballistic missile program. US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 5 that ballistic missile attacks from Iran have declined by roughly 90 percent since the strikes began. A campaign that destroys Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, stockpiles, and production facilities would accomplish the US stated objective to “raze or level Iran’s ballistic missile industrial base” and systematically dismantle Iran’s missile production capability.​
  • The combined force is continuing to target Iran’s defense industrial base, especially facilities that support drone development. The IDF targeted the Shokouhiyeh Industrial Zone in Qom Province and the Esteghlal Industrial Zone in Tehran Province, as well as an ammunition production facility and an ammunition depot in Tehran and Fars provinces.​
  • Iran has continued to retaliate against Israel, US bases in the Middle East, Gulf states, and other regional countries for the joint force strike campaign. Iran has launched at least six waves of ballistic missile attacks in the previous six days. The lower number of missile attacks further demonstrates the joint forces’ success in degrading Iran’s number of missile launchers.​
 
Updates



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Latest update

Key Takeaways

  1. Iran continued drone and ballistic missile attacks on Gulf states despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s order to suspend strikes unless attacks on Iran originated from their territory.
  2. The combined force has continued to target Basij bases in Tehran to degrade the regime’s ability to maintain domestic control. The Basij is a paramilitary force that is responsible for civil defense and social control. Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the combined force has targeted at least nine of the 23 Basij regional bases in Tehran as of March 6.
  3. The combined force struck two Artesh airbases in Esfahan Province on March 7 to suppress and destroy Iranian air defenses over the province and extend air dominance into central Iran. The combined force has established air superiority over Tehran and has likely done so over parts of western Iran.
  4. The combined force struck an unidentified vehicle at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility, south of the Natanz Enrichment Complex, on March 6. The Institute for Science and International Security reported that US-Israeli strikes targeted and destroyed a vehicle at the Mount Kolang Gaz La facility, citing March 6 satellite imagery. The Institute assessed that the vehicle may be related to air defense, but ISW-CTP could not come to an independent conclusion based on the available evidence.
 
Latest Updates


Key Takeaways

  1. Geolocated satellite imagery published on March 7 confirms that the IDF struck the Shahroud Missile Facility in Semnan Province, northeastern Iran. The IDF struck buildings at the Shahroud Missile Facility during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War that had previously housed planetary mixers, which are essential for producing ballistic missile solid fuel. Satellite imagery published by the Associated Press in September 2025 showed that Iran had started repairing damaged mixer buildings at Shahroud.
  2. The combined force has reportedly targeted at least five internal security sites in and around Esfahan City, central Iran, since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 7.These sites include the Esfahan Province Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Headquarters, which oversees LEC units in Esfahan Province.
  3. The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes against Hezbollah to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to launch attacks against IDF forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. The IDF stated on March 8 that it has struck more than 600 Hezbollah targets and killed more than 200 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon since February 28.
  4. Iran has continued to target regional countries and Israel since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 7. Iran conducted two separate drone attacks against Kuwait on March 7, targeting the Kuwaiti Social Security Building and fuel storage tanks at the Kuwait International Airport. Unspecified security sources told Reuters that unidentified actors conducted a drone attack targeting the United Nations building in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan.
  5. Hezbollah has claimed 19 attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 7.
 
Latest Updates



 
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