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SHTF Scenario Definition

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
I really like threads like these because it's thought-provoking. I honestly don't think I've read one post here that's of-substance (i.e. not a reply-to kind of post ;)) that I didn't find at least something I liked, agreed with, or, alternatively, something that I just haven't thought of or, perhaps even more importantly, could stand to think-of from a different perspective.

So, everyone - thank you, and keep them coming!


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For me, the most realistic "SHTF" is one of natural disaster. Where I live in NE-Ohio, our primary risk is tornadoes, and for our family specifically, and perhaps also that "once in a lifetime" snow-event (such as the 2011 snowstorm that shut down metro-Chicago - I learned a lot from this XDTalk member's wife's experience: https://www.xdtalk.com/threads/lessons-learned-wife-stranded-for-14-hours.167580/).

To me, this type of scenario also includes what's happening in various areas in China, now, of which perhaps the BBC has most impressed me with the breadth and depth of their coverage:


The lack of food and medical resources is a reality that can follow any such natural disaster or government-imposed quarantine order, and I think it is worth everyone's while to be prepared for this very realistic possibility - if not eventuality - regardless of whether they then decide to go deeper down the "prepping" rabbit hole.

Even in just my relatively short and God-blessed time on this earth of 45 years, I've now lived through several events that, while not disasters, certainly could be called emergencies, and it is towards these ends that I "prep" the way I do, which, even the "polite society" of academia, more and more people are starting to realize the importance of (and not just pay lip service to). The more we are self-reliant and are able to take stress off the system, the better we will all be, in such an event.

And towards that end, I hope to engender the same desire towards self-reliance in my child, by helping her understand that we are not prepping for these events out of fear. Rather, it is by being prepared (be it for self-defense or for survival - or just more comfortable living :) - during a natural disaster) that we are able to free ourselves of that fear.

I look back on that Chicago snowstorm thread on XDTalk and am able to say to myself that yes, I've prepared my wife and myself for that possibility.

I look at the news coming out of the BBC about Wuhan and other Chinese cities under quarantine, and again, I can say that we are ready for that, too.

I look at this thread so far, and it shows me what I haven't thought of - and it gives me direction for the future. :)
TSiWRX
You never cease to impress with your talent of breaking down a subject. You've brought a lot of great points that should make everyone think.👍
 

HVACDOC

Elite
Founding Member
I have made friends over the years,out here in the desert.Who have invited me and my wife to their go to place if things in the country go south.They are rugged folks that have been here for generations that know the land and the desert.It would be a great advantage for me,but I told them I would only do that if I could make a significant contribution to the cause. Food,water,guns ammo.Whatever. I told them never to take an outsider who cannot contribute.Nobody rides for free. They make me feel proud to be an American. It's still there.That thing,whatever it was in the 1700s that got us through.It's still there. The fire is still there. God Bless America
I agree that there are true Patriots left in this country. I have some around me that have generously offered their wisdom and help. They have the desire to see this country and the people who love it succeed no matter the cost. That is the tie that binds, love for the country, the people who make it up, and above all God who created it. They are people that I trust my life to because I know they would lay theirs down for me and mine.
To the issue at hand I believe that it is absolutely necessary to have enough to sustain yourself for two weeks to a month. Beyond that you will have to maintain the ability to defend what you have from those who are unprepared and would like what you have.
Past the short term it is much better if you can have a group that as a whole can care for themselves but bring something to the table that is more specialized. For instance a higher level of medical training, knowledge of water purification, food preservation, or weaponry. A jack of all trades and a master of at least one makes you a good bet as a partner in trying times.
The only exception I see to a group being better is if you live in the middle of nowhere. If you are far enough out you are most likely self sufficient enough that you may not even realize that there is an issue for some time.
All that said I would have considered it paranoia ten years ago but as mentioned in another thread this is not that world.
 

somorris

Professional
Founding Member
Good thread!

A few years ago (late '80's), Iben Browning predicted a major earthquake for our area. Folks started making preparations, storing water and canned goods, etc. We had a few meetings with local first responders and what all of them said was "They are not coming." This was in referring to the first three to five days (maybe more) after a major event when one will not be able to count on help from an ambulance, police, fire, etc. You will be on your own. The prudent thing to do is to prepare for something like this, although it is extremely difficult (in my experience) to stay motivated to do the things that need to be done, such as rotating water, fuel, medical supplies, etc. to keep things from getting stale. I'm not sure what the answer is for this gradual apathy, even when a person knows better. :) I'm glad the shelf life for ammo is pretty long!
 

Kage-Maru

Operator
Agreed. I've been into "prepping" for a few years. Nothing too seriuous (like buying an abandoned missile silo), but stockpiling some food, ammo, supplies, etc. I rotate it through and use it as much as I can to keep it all up to date, so it's not a huge outlay of money. Just space, as in a corner of my basement.
 

TSiWRX

Professional
^ Great point, @Kage-Maru and @somorris -

Personally, I think that keeping up with the rotation is probably the hardest "investment," aside from the initial outlay into necessary items.

I try to keep things as realistic as possible.

I know that I likely won't have the time or energy to do all of the water at once, so over the years, I've been able to stagger our WaterBricks. Otherwise, I invested in longer-term potable water solutions.

The same goes for batteries. While today's rechargeables can actually last a very long time with very low rates of self-discharge, the end-user needs to realize that parasitic drain through "soft" switched devices may significantly shorten this time-frame, so thought may need to be paid towards storage in battery compartments separate from the device.

Any food supplies also have to updated on a regular basis, too.
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
Good thread!

A few years ago (late '80's), Iben Browning predicted a major earthquake for our area. Folks started making preparations, storing water and canned goods, etc. We had a few meetings with local first responders and what all of them said was "They are not coming." This was in referring to the first three to five days (maybe more) after a major event when one will not be able to count on help from an ambulance, police, fire, etc. You will be on your own. The prudent thing to do is to prepare for something like this, although it is extremely difficult (in my experience) to stay motivated to do the things that need to be done, such as rotating water, fuel, medical supplies, etc. to keep things from getting stale. I'm not sure what the answer is for this gradual apathy, even when a person knows better. :) I'm glad the shelf life for ammo is pretty long!
Depending on what part of the country you are in water may not be a problem to aquire from a local source in a SHTF scenario but there could be a problem with contamination so a good non powered water filtration system maybe a decent alternative to storing a large amount of water. Even the hiking straws with the filter built in are worth keeping a few around and they are relatively cheap.
 

Richtex

Alpha
I live in a small town in Texas where we know who will stand together (including police/sheriff) in case of emergencies. Since we were in a situation where the power was out for 10 days when we lived in Michigan, we have a gas generator and a solar generator. We will stay in place as long as we can since we have supplies for months. Plan B is a bug out place we have established for that purpose of total breakdown of society. I think we have more danger from Tornados or fires in our area. We do have an under ground shelter for storms that we keep stocked. Will we share our supplies? May not have to, our neighbors are all prepared similar to us. As far as looters or people looking for trouble, we are a small enough town that we know who belongs here and who doesn't. We do share our storm shelter with our neighbors as needed.
 

Annihilator

Emissary
Founding Member
^ You're making me blush! 😊
1582047794743.jpeg

Hehehehe
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
I live in a small town in Texas where we know who will stand together (including police/sheriff) in case of emergencies. Since we were in a situation where the power was out for 10 days when we lived in Michigan, we have a gas generator and a solar generator. We will stay in place as long as we can since we have supplies for months. Plan B is a bug out place we have established for that purpose of total breakdown of society. I think we have more danger from Tornados or fires in our area. We do have an under ground shelter for storms that we keep stocked. Will we share our supplies? May not have to, our neighbors are all prepared similar to us. As far as looters or people looking for trouble, we are a small enough town that we know who belongs here and who doesn't. We do share our storm shelter with our neighbors as needed.
Sounds like an ideal place to be if SHTF!
Community is key to survival and with numbers on hand you can be productive to the group in other ways while there is a constant presence of security.
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
Since there is no breakdown in govt and food supply, no.

IMO, a stress test on society. Lessons should be learned from this experience.
I was asking from a worst case scenario point of view. I thought people could be imaginative and come up with some crazy ideas. The thread title is SHTF definition
 

KillerFord1977

Ronin
Founding Member
EMP’s by another country on our grid. Big cities or semi suburban areas would go into civil unrest instantly with lack of refrigeration for food, electeicity and live off of land land, maintain fires... a full blown camping society or 1700’s lifestyle would throw most of modern big cities into SHTF. Prob 80% of population would suffer. 20% country folk would shrug
I was asking from a worst case scenario point of view. I thought people could be imaginative and come up with some crazy ideas. The thread title is SHTF definition
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
EMP’s by another country on our grid. Big cities or semi suburban areas would go into civil unrest instantly with lack of refrigeration for food, electeicity and live off of land land, maintain fires... a full blown camping society or 1700’s lifestyle would throw most of modern big cities into SHTF. Prob 80% of population would suffer. 20% country folk would shrug
Wow that's a good one!

Scenario's like this seem a lot more realistic now considering how a virus like Covid 19 has shutdown our country imagine what a full scale attack would look like. Most Americans are so way under prepared for a bad event it's scary.
 
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