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SHTF Scenario Definition

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
We've all used the term SHTF in conversation or in our post. Some people prepare for such an event more so then others. When most of us use this term do we have a real definition as to what that would look like or how it happened? Is SHTF a temporary event caused by civil unrest, terrorist attack, natural disaster etc.... Or is SHTF more of total societal collapse brought on by a major event such as meteor strike, the world's economy collapse or a zombie apocalypse.

What is your idea of how SHTF and how is it brought on?

Do you have a contingency plan for such an event?

I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts on the subject.

No need to be shy this can be a fun topic.
 
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Bloodknight

Master Class
Founding Member
I knew it was coming,but not in my lifetime.After much thought.I decided to get to southern Arizona.Set up at home to protect me & the wife as best as possible.Concerned about looters& such.I know that if the authorities both local & state come in force.Partys over.I won't fire on American troops.Nato is another story.There are many setting up for all out conflict,but I have to be real.Those who have never seen something like this are all ready for the shooting to start.Been there done that.It's still beyond belief that we are talking about America.I'll be ready & do what I can
 

Ginge

Elite
There’s really no way to prepare for every type of event that could take place. Things get out of hand rapidly, and the world easily goes into WROL. But you can cover the basic items that can make a difference in dying or survival.

Basic survival equipment is essential, as is the skills to use it. 3m makes some excellent hazmat equipment with filters that will cover a large amount of likely needs.
Plan’s should mostly be based around shelter in place, with a backup plan at a secondary location if need be. Site B should have the same essentials as A.
Medicinal supplies are key as well. This is where your local coop is your friend. You can buy larger quantities of essential medicines used to treat livestock. Of course, storable foods and generators should be items of interest for the short term.
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
How about distance from home when SHTF the highway is in gridlock and there is mass rioting? An example for me is sometimes I can be 50 miles or more from home when I'm at work. Can you imagine trying to span 50 miles through a heavy population area to reach your home and family without having any form of communication if the phone service stops and everyone is in panic?
 

HotRod

Operator
Founding Member
I'm not a prepped as I'd like to be but i think SHTF is more about a short term regional disruption to distribution of food, electricity, etc. I don't think the nuclear fallout scenario is all that likely but I feel you can do a lot with a couple weeks worth of food and power. I store water, have a generator, lots of fuel on hand and some food. Real preppers would laugh at me but two weeks of self sufficiency is good for me right now.
 

Tenbones

Master Class
Founding Member
I have two scenarios that I consider SHTF worthy, Civil war and natural disaster. Natural disaster would be my primary SHTF concern since that would be the most likely event to happen where I live, ie., tornado. I spent six days last winter without electricity after a devastating ice storm which destroyed a good part of the elecrical grid in our county. I'm prepared for about two weeks of being unable to get out, if necessary.
 

Ginge

Elite
How about distance from home when SHTF the highway is in gridlock and there is mass rioting? An example for me is sometimes I can be 50 miles or more from home when I'm at work. Can you imagine trying to span 50 miles through a heavy population area to reach your home and family without having any form of communication if the phone service stops and everyone is in panic?
Always have a duffel that will double as your get home bag. 2days worth of storable food, ammo, blade, fire starter, cordage, water, appropriate clothing for the surrounding and a map.
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
I'm not a prepped as I'd like to be but i think SHTF is more about a short term regional disruption to distribution of food, electricity, etc. I don't think the nuclear fallout scenario is all that likely but I feel you can do a lot with a couple weeks worth of food and power. I store water, have a generator, lots of fuel on hand and some food. Real preppers would laugh at me but two weeks of self sufficiency is good for me right now.
Would you try and go it alone or group up with other people?
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
Always have a duffel that will double as your get home bag. 2days worth of storable food, ammo, blade, fire starter, cordage, water, appropriate clothing for the surrounding and a map.
What about current family whereabouts in a SHTF scenario? Do they have the means to survive until you get there? Is there a planned meeting point or backup meeting point?
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
I have two scenarios that I consider SHTF worthy, Civil war and natural disaster. Natural disaster would be my primary SHTF concern since that would be the most likely event to happen where I live, ie., tornado. I spent six days last winter without electricity after a devastating ice storm which destroyed a good part of the elecrical grid in our county. I'm prepared for about two weeks of being unable to get out, if necessary.
In a civil war scenario how do we know who is hostile? Would you hunker down, go to the front or try and move to a safer area?
 

Ginge

Elite
What about current family whereabouts in a SHTF scenario? Do they have the means to survive? Is there a planned meeting point or backup meeting point?
That depends on location. Do you live in the city, or a rural setting? What works for me and mine may not work for you and yours. I have a sick father whose mobility is limited. I have to keep him stationary as much as possible. There is a plan in place to meet up at site B, if Im unable to make it to them within a specified time.
If you’re in the city, have a plan with close friends and family. Find somewhere to set as a designated go to location. Avoid public designated shelters. Its a breeding ground for chaos, and they wont let you be armed.
I keep essentials in my parents car as well. Blankets, water, medicine for the old man, food and weapons among other items. Luckily my family is older now, pops is retired and never goes anywhere. Mom works, but not too far from home on the night shift.

Comms would likely go down. Its a good idea to plan ahead for something like that now while you have the chance.
 

Ginge

Elite
In a civil war scenario how do we know who is hostile? Would you hunker down, go to the front or try and move to a safer area?
Trust nobody. The criminal element will be out in full force. Get your loved ones to safety first, depending on how close you are to the action. If you’re in a subdivision, rally to community to arm up and create a mini militia. Then its up to you if you wanna partake in the party.
 

10mmLife

Moderator
Staff member
Founding Member
Trust nobody. The criminal element will be out in full force. Get your loved ones to safety first, depending on how close you are to the action. If you’re in a subdivision, rally to community to arm up and create a mini militia. Then its up to you if you wanna partake in the party.
I agree it probably would be best to team up with friends and neighbors. What about leadership would everyone just do whatever they think is right for the group or would a leader be necessary?
 

somorris

Professional
Founding Member
Despite the national political scene and recent happenings in VA, I think my wife and I are more likely to face a SHTF scenario as a result of a natural disaster. Some of you are probably pretty young, but when Katrina hit New Orleans it turned into a SHTF situation for a lot of the folks there. Where I live, we can, and likely will, have a significant earthquake one of these days. I can imagine looters having a field day while things are in chaos.

I remember reading about riots in LA where one ethnic group armed themselves and stuck together to protect their homes and businesses. Their properties were left alone.

I have a bug out place available, but practically speaking, it would be impossible to get there after a big disaster. My plan is to just stay here and try to protect my wife and myself as best I can. Thankfully, I am retired now so getting back home when the SHTF isn't much of an issue.
 

Ginge

Elite
The biggest things to take into consideration that I consider absolutes regardless of the situation are the facts that things will get out of control very fast, the criminal element will attempt to capitalize on the situation, and try to avoid going to designated public shelters.
 

Peglegjoe

Professional
Founding Member
Read Steven King's "The Stand" for a nice clear picture of what a situation like that could look like.

Also timely, given our current Coronavirus situation...still unclear how much is sensationalism and how much is massively-contagious-disease, but it could possibly get ugly. Get yer Airborne pills and piles of vitamin C!
 

BET7

Ronin
Founding Member
SHTF scenarios can vary, but I agree with other here, that it's more likely either Natural or Civil. There's not much that one can do to prevent a natural disaster, but you can be prepared as best you can, to "ride it out" and stay safe. For me, I will try to stay "in home" where I have food stores and bottled water. A full house generator will provide my electricity as long as propane can be delivered every couple of days. I do have a portable generator that runs on gas, but that will also depend on the availability of gas to refuel and keep running. My firearms and ammunition are also here, making it more convenient to stay "in home" to confront possible looters. My biggest fear is civil unrest like what is happening in Venezuela. A tyrannical government that abolishes the 2A and starts forced confiscation resulting in a civil insurrection. In this case, I would seek out like minded individuals supporting the 2A and try to form a militia to confront this tyranny.
 
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